Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle
We offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the consequent rise in the forward premium ...
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Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than one and often negative. We investigate whether replacing rational expectations by discounted least squares (or “perpetual”) learning can explain the result. We calculate the asymp...
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We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a ti...
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A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials across countries are negatively related, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violated in the data. This article provides new empirical evidence that suggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity, and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interest rate d...
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In this paper, I present evidence that the premium for a college education is essentially uncorrelated with the business cycle and that the average hours worked by college graduates are less volatile than those worked by nongraduates. Business cycle theory is then shown to be inconsistent with these observations when endogenous utilization and skill acquisition are incorporated. Abstracting fro...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1945-7707,1945-7715
DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.2.127